The once-bullish sentiment around cryptocurrency for October, often referred to as “Uptober” on social media, is fading as the market continues to pull back.
Shift from Optimism to Doubt
On October 4, Santiment, an on-chain analytics company, pointed out a notable drop in mentions of “Uptober” across social media since the start of the month. Traders are losing confidence in the idea that October would naturally be a prosperous time for crypto. Instead, phrases like “Selltober” and “Octobear” have taken over discussions, as people anticipate more downturns in the market.
Despite this waning optimism, Santiment’s founder, Maksim Balashevich, sees potential for a short-term recovery. He mentioned that the decline in excitement could set the stage for a brief market bounce. However, the larger question remains whether the overall bearish trend is truly coming to an end or not.
Similarly, prominent trader “Ash Crypto,” who has over 1.1 million followers on the social platform X (formerly Twitter), echoed this uncertainty. On October 3, he shared his prediction that Bitcoin could dip a bit further to discourage traders who are still hopeful for “Uptober.” He added that when bearish sentiment peaks, Bitcoin could rebound quickly and strongly.
Market Analysis and Declining Values
Crypto research firm 10x Research, in an investor note released on October 4, explained how several crypto enthusiasts have been misled by recent market movements. Since March, many have been expecting a bull market to continue, only to be met with declining prices instead.
According to 10x Research analysts, the rally seen earlier in the year was likely overextended. They pointed out that early adopters, referred to as “OGs,” have been selling off their holdings, along with significant token unlocks, which has been pushing prices lower. This has happened despite the support from stablecoin inflows, Bitcoin Spot ETFs, and a rise in futures leverage.
Since the start of October, the total market value of crypto has fallen by approximately $200 billion, or about 8%. By October 3, the total market capitalization had decreased by 1.9%, settling at $2.2 trillion, according to CoinGecko. Bitcoin, in particular, briefly dipped below $60,000 on October 3, before recovering slightly to hover around $61,000.
Historically, October has been a favorable month for Bitcoin, showing gains in nine of the past eleven years. In fact, the past five Octobers have all seen price increases ranging from 5.5% to as high as 40%, even during bear market years.
Nevertheless, based on previous trends, crypto markets tend to see a boost around mid-October. For instance, in 2023, Bitcoin dropped by 7% during the first half of October but then surged by nearly 30%, ending the month at $34,500. Whether this pattern will repeat remains uncertain.